The Italian headline, "Trump ha sottovalutato molte cose" (Trump has underestimated many things), while broad, resonates deeply within the complex theatre of the Iran-Israel conflict and broader Middle East security. For analysts at iranisrael.live, this statement points to a series of strategic miscalculations during the Trump administration that, intentionally or not, significantly altered the regional landscape, setting the stage for the heightened tensions we observe today.
Geopolitical Context: The Ripple Effect of 'America First'
One of the most profound underestimations was arguably the resilience and strategic patience of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, coupled with the "maximum pressure" campaign, was predicated on the belief that crippling sanctions would force Tehran back to the negotiating table for a more comprehensive deal, or even lead to regime collapse. Instead, Iran not only weathered the storm but also systematically accelerated its nuclear program, enriching uranium to unprecedented levels and restricting international oversight, bringing it closer to a potential breakout capability. This move directly escalated Israel's security concerns, pushing Jerusalem to consider more aggressive pre-emptive measures.
Furthermore, the Trump administration underestimated the intricate web of regional power dynamics. While the Abraham Accords were a significant diplomatic achievement, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states, they did not fundamentally address the core existential threat perceived by Israel from Iran, nor did they resolve the Palestinian issue, which remains a potent destabilizing factor. The accords, while creating a de facto anti-Iran alignment, also inadvertently fueled Iranian perceptions of encirclement, leading to increased support for regional proxies in an attempt to project power and maintain strategic depth.
Regional Impact: Escalation and Shifting Alliances
The underestimations had tangible consequences on the ground. Iran, feeling less constrained by international agreements and facing intense economic pressure, became more assertive. We witnessed a surge in attacks attributed to Iranian-backed militias against US interests in Iraq, drone and missile strikes against Saudi oil facilities, and continued arming of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. For Israel, this meant an increasingly dangerous northern border and a more potent threat from Iranian precision-guided munitions. Consequently, Israel intensified its "campaign between the wars" (CBW) in Syria and beyond, targeting Iranian asset transfers and military infrastructure, risking broader regional conflagration.
The perception of US unpredictability and a potential retreat from traditional security commitments also led regional actors to hedge their bets. While some embraced the Abraham Accords as a new security architecture, others sought to diversify their alliances or pursue independent foreign policies, creating a more fragmented and volatile regional environment. This vacuum of perceived US leadership further emboldened non-state actors and complicated efforts towards de-escalation.
What to Watch For Next
Moving forward, several critical elements demand close observation. Firstly, the trajectory of Iran's nuclear program remains paramount. As Iran inches closer to weapons-grade uranium, the window for diplomatic solutions narrows, increasing the likelihood of military action, either by Israel or potentially a multinational effort. Secondly, the upcoming US presidential election will be pivotal. A return of Trump could mean a resurgence of similar policies, while a continuation of the current administration's approach might involve renewed attempts at multilateral diplomacy, albeit from a weaker negotiating position.
Finally, monitor regional de-escalation efforts, such as the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and their limits. While these initiatives offer glimmers of hope, they often operate independently of the core Iran-Israel rivalry. The lasting legacy of underestimations during a critical period has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East, making the Iran-Israel conflict more complex, dangerous, and unpredictable than ever before.