The Italian headline "Perché Trump non può perdere" – "Why Trump cannot lose" – encapsulates a powerful and increasingly prevalent narrative in global politics: the perceived inevitability of Donald Trump's enduring influence, if not his outright return to power. For the volatile landscape of the Middle East, particularly the simmering conflict between Iran and Israel, this perception is not merely political punditry; it is a significant geopolitical variable shaping strategic calculations from Tehran to Jerusalem.
Geopolitical Context: The Shadow of Inevitability
The notion that Trump "cannot lose" stems from a complex interplay of factors: a fiercely loyal base, a political system grappling with populism, and a global environment ripe for disruption. Domestically, his ability to command attention and mobilize supporters remains unparalleled. Internationally, this perception casts a long shadow. Adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China might interpret it as an opportunity to push boundaries, anticipating a potential return to transactional and less multilateral US foreign policy. Allies, meanwhile, are forced to contingency plan for a potential seismic shift, preparing for a potential era of "America First" unilateralism that could redraw diplomatic lines and security commitments.
For the Middle East, a region already a crucible of proxy wars, nuclear ambitions, and fragile peace, the anticipation of Trump's potential return creates a unique form of strategic paralysis and heightened anxiety. Every major player, from Riyadh to Ankara, is assessing how a renewed Trump presidency or even his sustained political weight would impact their standing, their alliances, and their security paradigms.
Regional Impact: Iran, Israel, and the Shifting Sands
The implications for the Iran-Israel conflict are particularly profound. A second Trump administration would almost certainly signal a return to, and likely an intensification of, the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. This could involve stringent sanctions, increased military posturing, and a definitive rejection of any revival of the JCPOA. While this might be welcomed by Israel's current hardline government, which views a maximalist approach as the only way to contain Tehran, it also carries significant risks. A cornered Iran, facing existential economic and political pressure, could accelerate its nuclear program, intensify regional proxy activities, or even risk direct confrontation, pushing the region to the brink.
For Israel, a Trump return could offer a sense of renewed strategic alignment, particularly regarding Iran and potentially further normalization efforts with Arab states, building on the Abraham Accords. Trump's previous administration demonstrated unwavering support for Israeli security interests, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory. However, this support often came with a transactional edge, potentially leading to unpredictable demands or shifts that might not always align with Israel's long-term strategic stability. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would likely welcome a return to a US foreign policy less focused on human rights and more on shared security threats, especially from Iran, potentially empowering them to take more assertive regional roles.
What to Watch For Next
The geopolitical landscape is already reacting to this perceived inevitability. Key indicators to monitor include: the trajectory of US domestic politics and the upcoming election cycle; statements and policy outlines from Trump and his potential foreign policy team; and, crucially, the pre-emptive adjustments by regional actors. Will Iran double down on its nuclear advancements or seek new diplomatic avenues? Will Israel escalate its shadow war against Iranian assets, confident in potential US backing? Will Arab states accelerate their own defense pacts or diplomatic overtures, either hedging against or embracing a new US posture? The perception of Trump's political resilience is already a powerful force, compelling Middle Eastern powers to prepare for a future that could be both familiar in its confrontational rhetoric and unprecedented in its unpredictable outcomes.